For Calgary Homebuyers and Calgary Sellers
As we move through the final months of 2024 and look ahead to 2025, Calgary’s real estate market continues to evolve. Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or investor, understanding current trends and future predictions is critical for making informed decisions. Here’s a detailed analysis of the Calgary real estate market, focusing on what’s happening now and what you can expect in 2025.
2024 Fall Update: A Seller’s Market Prevails
The Calgary housing market remains a seller’s market as of fall 2024, driven by a persistent inventory shortage and strong buyer demand.
Key Highlights (January–July 2024):
- Average Sale Price: Increased 11.7% year-over-year, from $539,648 in 2023 to $602,653 in 2024.
- Number of Sales: Rose 3.4%, from 16,946 in 2023 to 17,524 in 2024.
- Listings: Increased by 8%, from 21,520 in 2023 to 23,251 in 2024.
Despite an 8% uptick in new listings, inventory levels remain critically low in the under-$600,000 range for detached homes and under $300,000 for condos. This shortage, coupled with high interprovincial migration, has fueled competition among buyers, often leading to multiple offers and rising prices.
Factors Impacting Fall Market Dynamics
- Interest Rates: While the Bank of Canada’s recent announcements suggest potential rate cuts, they have not significantly shifted sales activity due to limited supply.
- Affordable Housing Crunch: Reasonably priced homes under $600,000 remain scarce, leaving many first-time buyers and investors competing for limited inventory.
- Investor Activity: Out-of-province investors are increasing market pressure, particularly in entry-level price points.
Looking ahead to the close of 2024, average sales prices are expected to increase by an additional 3%, while sales numbers are projected to hold steady.
2025 Outlook: Transitioning Toward a Buyer’s Market
In 2025, the Calgary housing market is anticipated to transition towards a balanced or buyer’s market, depending on price range.
Predictions for 2025:
- Average Price Growth: A 5% increase is expected, bringing the average price to approximately $622,125.
- Sales Volume: A modest 2% increase is anticipated, reflecting steady activity.
- Inventory Growth: A higher supply of listings, especially in the higher price ranges, is expected to balance the market.
Segment-Specific Expectations:
- First-Time Buyers: Demand for detached homes under $700,000 and condos under $350,000 will keep these segments competitive, creating seller’s market conditions.
- Move-Up Buyers: Budgets between $700,000 and $2 million will gravitate toward detached homes and infills, which are expected to experience balanced market conditions.
- Luxury and Retiree Buyers: Properties over $800,000 may sit on the market longer as inventory levels increase.
- Condo Sales Surge: Condominium apartments are expected to lead sales activity due to affordability and strong demand from younger buyers and downsizers.
Key Factors Shaping 2025
- Affordability Challenges: Although lower interest rates and extended 30-year amortizations will make homeownership more accessible, Calgary’s lack of affordable housing supply remains a core issue.
- Strong In-Migration: Calgary continues to attract newcomers from other provinces, supporting demand but adding pressure to the already tight inventory.
- Rental Market Stability: A rise in rental unit availability is expected to stabilize rental rates, which may prompt some investors to sell properties or shift focus.
- New Construction Boom: High levels of new development, particularly in apartments, condos, detached homes, and infills, will gradually ease supply constraints.
What Does This Mean for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors?
- For Buyers: Affordability will continue to be a challenge, particularly in the under-$600,000 range. Consider acting early before prices rise further in 2025.
- For Sellers: If you’re listing a property in a high-demand price point (under $700,000), you can expect quick sales and competitive offers. Higher-priced properties may require more time to sell.
- For Investors: With stable rental rates and high demand for affordable housing, focusing on condos and entry-level properties may yield strong returns.
Final Thoughts
Calgary’s real estate market remains one of the most dynamic in Canada, driven by affordability compared to other major cities, strong in-migration, and a booming economy. As we wrap up 2024, the seller’s market persists, but 2025 is poised to offer more opportunities for buyers with growing inventory and a shift toward balance.
For personalized advice on navigating Calgary’s housing market, don’t hesitate to reach out to Jay Schultz Real Estate Group. Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, we’re here to help you achieve your real estate goals.
